Boom and bust: the fiscal implications of fossil fuel phase-out in six large emerging economies

This report examines the possible financial implications of phasing out fossil fuels in six emerging economies based on scenarios published by the International Energy Agency in its 2021 World Energy Outlook and suggests strategies for managing the transition. To comply with the Paris Agreement, the world will have to phase down fossil fuels, which will erode related revenues. This report examines the possible financial consequences of the clean energy transition in Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa (BRIICS countries). The study assesses current dependency on fossil fuel revenues and uses IEA scenarios of energy demand, supply, and prices from 2030 to 2050 to project future revenues.