The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. This paper consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In low productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10-60% by 2030.