Analysis of cost-effective reduction pathways for major emitting countries to achieve the Paris Agreement climate goal

This report presents cost-effective greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways for major emitting economies to keep global warming below 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C, as projected from least-cost scenarios of integrated assessment models in the IPCC AR6 scenario database. Achievement of the global climate goal of the Paris Agreement depends on the collective action by individual nations. This is reflected in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). To ensure continued progress, the Paris Agreement established a ratcheting process in which the NDCs are evaluated and countries are encouraged to submit more ambitious NDCs. Parties submitted new NDCs by 2021 and will be required to submit updated NDCs by 2025. In this context, greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2035 and 2040 become increasingly important.