Bengaluru 2030: impact of EVs on vehicular emissions

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a direct cause of human-induced climate change. India accounted for 2.9 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2019. The transportation sector accounts for roughly 10% or 290 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per year. Road transport, mainly comprising heavy vehicles (buses and trucks) and to some extent personal vehicles (two wheelers [2Ws] and four wheelers [4Ws]), is the leading contributor to these emissions. Based on the latest trends, a recent study by the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) reported that vehicle electrification is the most practical approach to curb vehicular GHG emissions, with the added benefit of significantly inhibiting sources of urban pollution including particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and black carbon (BC). In the current study, the on-road vehicle stock in Bengaluru was obtained by accounting for all vehicles registered in the last 20 years (2001–2021) and those that were retired (due to wear and tear, accident, or total loss) during this period. Further, the vehicle population was projected into the horizon year (2030) by extending the past growth trends in each vehicle class. These projections showed that the on-road vehicle stock grows 1.5 times (from 5.7M vehicles to 8.9M vehicles), at an overall growth rate of 5%.

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