Antarctic ozone depletion between 1960 and 1980 in observations and chemistry-climate model simulations
The year 1980 has often been used as a benchmark for the return of Antarctic ozone to conditions assumed to be unaffected by emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), implying that anthropogenic ozone depletion in Antarctica started around 1980. Here, the extent of anthropogenically-driven Antarctic ozone depletion prior to 1980 is examined using output from transient Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) simulations from 1960 to 2000 with prescribed changes of ozone depleting substance concentrations in conjunction with observations. A regression model is used to attribute CCM modelled and observed changes in Antarctic total column ozone to halogen-driven chemistry prior to 1980. Winter-time Antarctic ozone is strongly affected by dynamical processes that vary in amplitude from year to year and from model to model.