Increase of uncertainty in transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions after stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration
We analyzed a dataset from an experiment of an earth system model of intermediate complexity, focusing on the change in transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) after atmospheric CO2 concentration was stabilized in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. We estimated the TCRE in 2005 at 0.3–2.4 K/TtC for an unconstrained case and 1.1–1.7 K/TtC when constrained with historical and present-day observational data, the latter result being consistent with other studies. The range of TCRE increased when the increase of CO2 concentration was moderated and then stabilized. This is because the larger (smaller) TCRE members yield even greater (less) TCRE.