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All for a change

  • 14/08/1996

one would think that if more than 1,000 scientists belonging to various countries and working for 10 years, pointed out the grave danger posed by increasing carbon emissions to the climate as well as the global economy, world leaders would take notice and initiate restorative action. Instead, they choose to either pass on the buck or worse, plainly deny the existence of such a problem.

A scientific report prepared under the aegis of the un Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc) and released in July 1996 - and the reaction it has elicited - say as much. The report was agreed upon by scientists from more than 170 countries in December 1995 in Rome and it says that increases in greenhouse gases (ghg), mainly carbon dioxide (co2), since pre-industrial times (1750) had led to the warming of the earth"s surface, besides other climatic changes. Its main conclusions are:

l Atmospheric concentrations of co2, methane and nitrous oxide (n2o) have grown by 30, 145 and 15 per cent respectively, largely due to fossil fuel use, land-use changes and agriculture.

l Many ghg like co2 and n2o remain in the atmosphere for centuries; hence, it takes a long time to reverse their effect on the climate.

l If co2 emissions were maintained at near current (1994) levels, they would lead to an almost constant rate of increase in atmospheric concentrations for at least two centuries, reaching twice the pre-industrial concentrations by the year 2000.

l Global mean surface air temperature has increased between 0.3 and 0.6

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