Indian met goes hi tech, may track weather with more accuracy
the Indian Meteorological Department may soon be credited for predicting the path of tropical cyclones and nor'westers with remarkable accuracy. A new weather forecast model, which tracked Mala, the April 26 cyclone from the Bay of Bengal with significant accuracy, will soon be adopted by weather research and forecasting organisations in India. The model has been developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (ncar), both of the us, and more than 150 other organisations and universities over the world.
"The weather research and forecasting (wrf) model development project is the first time when researchers and operational scientists have come together to collaborate on a weather modelling project of this magnitude,' says Louis Uccellini, director, noaa 's National Center for Environmental Prediction. As the model performs both functions, it is easier for research findings to be translated into improved operational models, leading to better forecasts.
"The new model has the potential of replacing the currently operational mesoscale or mm5 model. This model can predict weather at the local level up to 10 km and is a fine resolution model. However, it can be modified with certain inputs to form a global model which can predict weather up to 150 km,' says U C Mohanty of iit Delhi. He also said while studies so far are not enough to work out the difference in percentage of accuracy between the wrf and mm5, the cyclone Mala was predicted with significantly greater accuracy than in mm5 model.
Training underway iit Delhi has already trained people from 21 organisations in India. "The us claims that the wrf model is a high-resolution regional model. We have sent our scientists for training to ncar. The model is being tested in India. The tests will say whether the model can predict tropical cyclones and whether it is suitable for the Indian system,' said M Rajeevan, director of National Climate Centre. Mohanty agrees. "This model is better than other models, but further tests are required to confirm this. The model also needs to be customised for India for tropical cyclone and thunderstorm prediction,' he says.
But is this enough? Mohanty notes that the new model may not be enough for accurate weather prediction. "We also need better weather data. In any case, there is need for better equipment for application of this model but for more accurate predictions, better infrastructure is required. At present, we are studying the efficacy of this model with the help of data from the us, ' says Mohanty. The model is also being adopted by Taiwan, South Korea and China.