Prediction of western disturbances and associated weather over Western Himalayas

Two cases of intense western disturbances which affected the northwest India have been investigated using the India Meteorological Department’s operational limited area analysis and forecast system. The model results are compared with the synoptic observations, which have been enriched by additional stations installed under the national project ‘Parwat’. The analysis shows that the 24-hour model forecasts are in good agreement with the observations both in respect of western disturbance’s movement and intensification. Even the numerical model could predict the spatial distribution of precipitation with a high success rate and was found to be very useful in providing numerical guidance in day-to-day operational short range forecasts.