Village level forecast will take time

  • 29/09/2009

On India Meteorological Department using statistical models instead of dynamical ones for forecasting Tell me which dynamical model has given correct forecasts for India? The forecasts for Indian monsoons given by the US, UK and Europe in April this year (using dynamical models) threw up different predictions. None of them could predict monsoons would be so low. But the India Meteorological Department (imd) did predict that monsoons will be below normal by taking inputs from all sources; for northwest India they specifically said monsoon would be 81 per cent below normal when most other agencies said it would be normal. In qualitative terms our forecast was accurate. The dynamical models do not give reasonably accurate forecasts at all times and for all regions. There is a study in a 2005 edition of the journal Science that says we will eventually have to depend on statistical models that use historical data.

On staff shortage in IMD We don

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